FC Bayern München vs Atalanta

Bayern Munich will host Atalanta BC in a decisive UEFA Champions League Round of 16 second-leg clash at the Allianz Arena, following a commanding 6-1 win in the reverse fixture. Historically, Bayern have enjoyed strong results against Italian opposition in UEFA competitions. The Bavarian club have lost only two of their last 17 European matches against Italian teams, recording 12 wins and three draws during that span. Across two-legged ties against clubs from Italy, Bayern’s record is evenly balanced with seven wins and seven defeats. The German champions have also built an exceptional reputation at this stage of the competition. Bayern have won 13 of their last 14 Champions League round-of-16 ties and are currently on a run of six consecutive victories in this round since their elimination by Liverpool FC in the 2018/19 season. Overall, they have lost only two of their last 25 matches played at this stage of the tournament, highlighting their consistency in the knockout rounds. Another statistic strongly favours Bayern heading into the return leg. The club have won 28 of their 29 UEFA two-legged ties after winning the first leg away from home. In several of those ties they progressed comfortably, including four occasions where they advanced by an aggregate margin of five goals. Notably, Bayern have never suffered a defeat by more than four goals in any UEFA competition, making a dramatic turnaround by Atalanta extremely unlikely. Vincent Kompany is expected to deploy a 4—2—3—1 formation with Nicolas Jackson in attack against Atalanta. Joshua Kimmich and Michael Olise are both suspended for this fixture.

For Atalanta BC, the challenge is significant following the heavy defeat in the first leg. The Italian club conceded six goals for the first time in their UEFA competition history in that match, equalling their biggest ever defeat in Europe. The only other time they lost by five goals came against Liverpool FC during the 2020/21 Champions League group stage. Despite the difficult situation, Atalanta have previously shown they can compete against German opposition. They have won three of their five previous two-legged UEFA ties against German clubs, and their away record against teams from Germany stands at three wins, two draws, and two defeats. However, their experience in similar scenarios is limited. Atalanta have only once before lost the first leg of a UEFA knockout tie at home. They will need a miracle to overturn the five-goal deficit but, nevertheless, are willing to make a dignified exit from the competition. A 4—2—3—1 formation with Nikola Krstovic in attack is expected against Bayern. Giorgio Scalvini and Yunus Musah are both suspended for this clash.