Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund

Atalanta [WWWLW] face a daunting task as they welcome Borussia Dortmund to Bergamo for the decisive second leg of their UCL knockout phase play-off, trailing 2-0 from the first meeting in Germany. The defeat in Dortmund ended a strong run against German opposition, with La Dea having previously won three straight matches against BL clubs without conceding [3W, 0D, 0L]. Overall, that loss marked only their third defeat in 12 games against German sides [6W, 3D, 3L]. However, history offers little encouragement this time. The Italian side have been eliminated in each of their last four European knockout ties after losing the first leg, and no team has overturned a two-goal deficit in a UCL knockout tie since the 2018/19 season. This marks La Dea’s first European Cup knockout tie against German opposition. Their record across two-legged contests with Bundesliga teams stands at two wins and two losses, with their most recent elimination coming against RB Leipzig in the 2021/22 UEFA Europa League quarter-finals. Encouragement may come from domestic form. Raffaele Palladino’s men showed resilience at the weekend, coming from behind to beat Napoli 2-1 — a result that extended their home winning streak across all competitions to four matches [4W, 0D, 0L]. While their last defeat at home came in this competition, Atalanta have never suffered four consecutive defeats in major European fixtures. Selection issues could complicate matters, though. Charles De Ketelaere, Giacomo Raspadori, and Sead Kolašinac are ruled out. Nikola Krstović is expected to start upfront in a 3—4—2—1 pattern.

Dortmund arrive with momentum of their own after a dramatic late [95’] minute equaliser salvaged a draw against RB Leipzig, extending their unbeaten run to five competitive matches [WWWWD]. Their European pedigree is also evident, having progressed from seven of the last nine UCL ties in which they won the first leg. However, their away form in this competition leaves room for concern. The Prussians have won just one of their last five UCL away matches [1W, 1D, 3L], conceding four goals in three of those outings. Injury concerns may also weaken their defensive stability. Emre Can is sidelined with adductor pain, while Niklas Süle, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Filippo Mané are all unavailable. Niko Kovač may deploy a 3—4—2—1 formation with Serhou Guirassy upfront.