Benfica vs Real Madrid

Benfica’s [WWDWW] presence in the knockout phase play-offs borders on the extraordinary after goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin’s dramatic late-minute [90+8’] goal against Real Madrid on matchday eight of the league phase sealed a 4-2 win and qualification. In doing so, he became only the fifth goalkeeper in UCL history to score, ensuring the Portuguese side progressed to the knockouts for the fourth time in five seasons. That moment may serve as inspiration as they prepare to face the 15-time European champions again. As Águias arrive with strong credentials in two-legged ties, having won eight of their last 11 across European competition. Their home form also provides encouragement, with four wins from their last six UEFA Champions League matches at Estádio da Luz [4W, 0D, 2L]. Yet history against Spanish opposition tells a less reassuring story. O Glorioso have lost their last five UEFA two-legged ties against La Liga clubs, with their most recent triumph dating back to the 1982/83 UEFA Cup against Real Betis. While they have won three of their four meetings with Madrid following last month’s heroics [3W, 0D, 1L], that success was only their fourth victory in 26 matches against Spanish sides [4W, 8D, 14L]. José Mourinho’s side warmed up for this clash with a 2-1 league win over Santa Clara, though squad concerns linger. Alexander Bah, João Veloso, and Samuel Soares remain doubtful, while Fredrik Aursnes and Richard Ríos are ruled out. Vangelis Pavlidis may start upfront in a 4—2—3—1 formation.

Backing Real Madrid on the continental stage rarely feels misplaced. This marks their 29th consecutive appearance in the knockout rounds, and their pedigree is reinforced by success in ten of their last 12 two-legged UEFA Champions League ties. Their recent form [WLWWW] suggests last month’s 4-2 defeat to Benfica may have been an anomaly. Los Blancos have recorded three victories either side of that loss, including a commanding 4-1 win over Real Sociedad at the weekend. However, six defeats in their last 11 UCL matches inside regulation time hint at a possible vulnerability [5W, 0D, 6L]. Madrid also travel with key absences. Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo are on suspension, while Jude Bellingham and Éder Militão are sidelined. Álvaro Arbeloa is expected to deploy a 4—3—1—2 formation with Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé paired up front.